At a Glance

1. Current Status: A "Balanced Market" with a slight lean toward sellers in high-demand school zones.

2. Months of Supply: Currently sitting at 5.4 months for the general 78731 area, though closer to 3.2 months for turnkey estates.

3. Days on Market: Averaging 67 days, which is a decrease from earlier this year, signaling increased buyer activity.

4. The "Sweet Spot": Well-maintained homes in the $900k–$1.3M range are seeing the most competition as the spring market peaks.

If you’ve been following the headlines regarding Austin’s real estate cooling, you might expect Northwest Hills to be a definitive buyer’s market. However, those of us working daily in the 78731 ZIP code see a more nuanced picture. As of May 2026, Northwest Hills has settled into a rare and healthy "Balanced Market," though it occasionally tilts back toward a seller’s market for specific types of properties.

In real estate, a six-month supply of inventory is typically the line in the sand between a buyer’s and seller’s market. With Northwest Hills trending between 3.2 and 5.4 months depending on the specific price point, we are currently in a "middle ground" that hasn't been seen in this neighborhood for years. This creates an environment where both parties have a seat at the table.

What do the current inventory levels tell us?

The broader Austin metro has seen inventory rise significantly over the past 18 months, giving buyers more choices than they’ve had in a decade. However, Northwest Hills remains one of the more supply-constrained pockets of the city. According to data from the Travis Central Appraisal District and local MLS activity, our inventory levels dropped from over 6 months in early spring down to 5.4 months in May.

This contraction in inventory is typical for the spring "school-shopping" season. Families are aggressively looking for homes before the fall semester begins at Doss Elementary. For sellers, this means you aren't facing the same "glut" of competition as those in the far-flung suburbs. For buyers, it’s a reminder that while you have more leverage than in 2021, the "gems" are still disappearing quickly.

Are buyers finding more leverage in negotiations?

While the inventory suggests a balance, the "Close-to-List" price ratio currently stands at 93.8%. This is a crucial metric for buyers. It indicates that most sellers are accepting offers roughly 6% below their asking price, or perhaps more importantly, that they are offering credits for repairs and interest rate buydowns.

In my daily observations, I am seeing that the market is rewarding "informed, confident buyers." Unlike the frenzy of previous years, you now have the time to perform thorough inspections and negotiate on deferred maintenance. This is particularly relevant in Northwest Hills, where many homes have original 1970s plumbing or foundations built on shifting limestone. The "Seller's Market" of the past wouldn't have allowed for these concessions; today's "Balanced Market" absolutely does.

Why are some homes still receiving multiple offers?

If the market is balanced, why did a property on Chimney Corners just go under contract in four days? The answer lies in "condition and location." We are currently seeing a two-speed market within 78731:

1. The "Turnkey" Market: Homes that have been professionally renovated, staged, and priced according to current comps are still behaving like they are in a seller's market. These properties often see multiple offers because buyers are willing to pay a premium to avoid the high cost of renovation labor in Austin.

2. The "Legacy" Market: Homes in original condition or with dated floor plans are firmly in a buyer's market. These properties are sitting for 80+ days and require significant price adjustments to attract interest.

What is the impact of the school feeder pattern this May?

The Austin Independent School District boundaries for Doss, Murchison, and Anderson act as a secondary "market floor." Even when interest rates create a cooling effect elsewhere, the demand for these specific schools keeps Northwest Hills values afloat. This academic demand is what prevents the neighborhood from tipping into a true "buyer's market" where prices might see a freefall. Instead, we see price stability backed by consistent, generational demand.

Market Q&A: May 2026

Is it a bad time to sell if the market is balanced? Not at all. A balanced market is often the best time to "trade up" or "trade down" within the same area. While you might not get the outlier price for your sale, you won't have to overpay for your next home, and you’ll have more time to find it.

How much should a buyer expect to negotiate off the list price? It depends entirely on how long the home has been on the market. If it’s Day 5, expect to pay close to list. If it’s Day 60, the data shows that a 5–7% negotiation is within the realm of possibility, especially if major repairs are needed.

Are cash offers still winning every deal? Cash is still king in Northwest Hills, but it’s no longer the only way to win. With the City of Austin's economy remaining stable, many sellers are accepting financed offers that include solid down payments and reasonable appraisal waivers.

What is the most common reason for a deal falling through right now? The "Inspection Period" is back in full force. Deals are most likely to fall through when a buyer discovers a significant foundation or drainage issue that the seller is unwilling to credit. In a balanced market, the "Option Period" is where the real work happens.

The Final Verdict

So, is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in Northwest Hills?

It is a Strategic Market. Sellers can no longer rely on luck or neighborhood hype; they must rely on excellent presentation and realistic pricing. Buyers can no longer rely on "hoping" for a deal; they must move decisively when they find a well-maintained home, knowing that inventory in 78731 is still historically low.

If you’re trying to time your next move, remember that "balanced" is actually a sign of a healthy community. It means the neighborhood is stable, predictable, and resilient. If you’d like to see the specific data for your street or a home you’ve been watching, reach out—I’m always happy to provide the grounded perspective you need to make a move with confidence.

#NWHills